{"id":1087,"date":"2011-02-17T10:52:41","date_gmt":"2011-02-17T15:52:41","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/demand-planning.com\/?p=1087"},"modified":"2011-02-17T10:52:41","modified_gmt":"2011-02-17T15:52:41","slug":"forecast-first-ask-questions-later","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/demand-planning.com\/2011\/02\/17\/forecast-first-ask-questions-later\/","title":{"rendered":"Forecast First, Ask Questions Later?"},"content":{"rendered":"
\"Kenton<\/a>

Kenton Burki - Jockey<\/p><\/div>\n

Sometime during the 20th<\/sup> century sales forecasting<\/a> went from being a necessary part of someone\u2019s job to being someone\u2019s entire job<\/a>.\u00a0 Sales forecasting, has made the move from being only\u00a01 step in the inventory\/production analyst\u2019s planning to a forecaster\u2019s full time position. This is definitely good news for those of us who wanted to do sales forecasting full time!\u00a0 (Did we really?)\u00a0 I wonder who blamed whom for a bad forecast back in those days?<\/p>\n

Today, forecasting is a function handled in many companies by specially trained experts<\/a>. Providing the forecast or maintaining a forecast is now largely determined by management. An unbiased forecast is often used to provide an indication if we\u2019re keeping pace with the business plan.\u00a0 And if we\u2019re not, what demand shaping activities can we do to improve or damper the forecast <\/a>where needed. \u00a0However, a large part in preparing a final forecast to drive supply chain operations is first developing an understanding of the dynamics taking place in the marketplace from consumer to buyer.\u00a0 By examining the real causes of buying chain behavior and factors, and incorporating this information in the consensus forecasting process, one has a better chance of developing a better forecast in the future, as well as increasing credibility.<\/p>\n

Where available, POS data is at least a partial leading indicator of the future. It can be considered a mixed blessing to have the benefit of this data in forecasting since the data can be valuable.\u00a0 However, we are forecasting what the customer intends to buy, and that does not have the inherent smoothing effect of a large number of consumers.\u00a0 A customer order can be based on one person\u2019s or group\u2019s reaction to a number of internal factors that may not be apparent to the forecaster.\u00a0 So, an important area of study for any forecaster must be the underlying factors in the POS data and reconciling POS forecasts with customer order forecasts.\u00a0 Also, there are a number of ways to use POS data as an input to shipping forecasts, but none of them work perfectly.<\/p>\n

Furthermore, the impact of economic forces from global to individual behavior is a topic that holds a lot of information to study<\/a>, and we never get our arms around the whole thing.\u00a0 However the more we can build an argument for a forecast that is based on valid assumptions, and identify the risks, the better chance we have for an optimal planning outcome.<\/p>\n

Join me in Orlando at IBF\u2019s Conference <\/a>to hear my talk on, \u201cPractical Forecasting and Planning in a Volatile Marketplace\u201d<\/p>\n

Kenton Burki
\nManager \u2013 Inventory and Forecasting
\nJockey International, Inc.<\/p>\n

Hear Kenton Speak at<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n

<\/strong>\"IBF's<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Sometime during the 20th century sales forecasting went from being a necessary part of someone\u2019s job to being someone\u2019s entire job.\u00a0 Sales forecasting, has made the move from being only\u00a01 step in the inventory\/production analyst\u2019s planning to a forecaster\u2019s full time position. This is definitely good news for those of us who wanted to do […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":629,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[33],"tags":[60,61,62,65,66,34,67,39,69,70,35,42,43,44,36,48,81,202,37,73,74,38],"class_list":{"0":"post-1087","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","6":"category-forecasting-and-planning","7":"tag-best-practices","8":"tag-business-forecasting","9":"tag-collaborative-forecasting","10":"tag-demand-forecasting","11":"tag-demand-management","12":"tag-demand-planning","13":"tag-demand-planning-and-forecasting-conference","14":"tag-economic-forecasting","15":"tag-forecast-accuracy","16":"tag-forecast-error","17":"tag-forecasting","18":"tag-forecasting-metrics","19":"tag-forecasting-models","20":"tag-forecasting-system","21":"tag-ibf","22":"tag-institute-of-business-forecasting-and-planning","23":"tag-inventory-management","24":"tag-jockey-international","25":"tag-sop","26":"tag-sales-operations-planning","27":"tag-sales-forecasting","28":"tag-supply-chain"},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/demand-planning.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1087"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/demand-planning.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/demand-planning.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/demand-planning.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/629"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/demand-planning.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=1087"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/demand-planning.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1087\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/demand-planning.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=1087"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/demand-planning.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=1087"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/demand-planning.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=1087"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}