{"id":1272,"date":"2011-08-24T12:03:00","date_gmt":"2011-08-24T16:03:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/demand-planning.com\/?p=1272"},"modified":"2011-08-24T12:03:00","modified_gmt":"2011-08-24T16:03:00","slug":"leaning-into-a-better-forecast","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/demand-planning.com\/2011\/08\/24\/leaning-into-a-better-forecast\/","title":{"rendered":"LEANing Into a Better Forecast"},"content":{"rendered":"
\"John<\/a>

John Gallucci - Nice-Pak, Inc.<\/p><\/div>\n

\u201cSo, even a well thought-out forecasting process<\/a> can be wasteful if it is not done properly.\u201d This was a remark made by one of the attendees who came to hear my \u201cLean Forecasting & Planning\u201d presentation at IBF\u2019s <\/a>recent Business Forecasting & Planning Academy @ 2 Levels.\u00a0 This declaration was also one of the more noteworthy \u201ca-ha!\u201d moments of the workshop.\u00a0 I designed the session so that it focused on the application of lean principles in the forecasting process.\u00a0 We defined any activity that did not create value for the consumer<\/a> as wasteful, and then targeted those activities for elimination.\u00a0 Attendees also received some tools to assess where waste exists in their companies, and were able to provide an unending list of examples in their current processes such as\u2026<\/p>\n

\u2026 the duplicate activities that take place because of a \u00a0lack of trust and poor communication across functions built on a silo mentality<\/p>\n

\u2026 the painful manual processes that could be automated<\/a> if capital funds ever become available<\/p>\n

\u2026 the forecaster who spends most of her time on \u201cC\u201d and \u201cD\u201d items<\/p>\n

\u2026 the egomaniac running Sales who pushes the Consensus Team to change their projection so he can meet his own objectives<\/p>\n

….Etc. etc.<\/p>\n

This IBF<\/a> workshop also reviewed the opportunity cost<\/em> of waste in Forecasting. Opportunity cost reduces an organization\u2019s clock speed, reduces margins, and drives a less productive culture.\u00a0 It also focuses key resources on meaningless internal positioning tactics, while the competition is working towards creating the next big idea!\u00a0 One attendee at the workshop provided an example where her cross-functional team spent over 100 hours per month building a forecast that was never applied to their advanced planning system.\u00a0 What a waste!<\/p>\n

The application of lean principles is relatively new to Forecasting<\/a>, even though it is something we have been doing \u00a0for years without recognizing it.\u00a0 The elimination of bias, for example, is driven by a zero-waste lean mentality.\u00a0 Pull-based market-driven S&OP is also emerging as a trend for leading Planning organizations<\/a>.\u00a0 These activities show clear progress, but they only address part of the opportunity.<\/p>\n

We must take a more holistic view when targeting the elimination of waste in the Forecasting process.\u00a0 It exists in our processes, policies, and systems.\u00a0 It is an unwieldy enemy that transcends functions and requires change management practices.\u00a0 Eliminating waste from Forecasting \u00a0requires continuous improvement techniques<\/a> that by definition never reach an end-state.\u00a0 The task is difficult, but then again, the most fulfilling ones often are.<\/p>\n

A brief role-playing scenario in the IBF<\/a> workshop provided clear proof that lean forecasting is a competitive advantage.\u00a0 My journey has begun.\u00a0 Has yours?\u00a0 Where does waste exist in your forecasting organization?\u00a0 Are you up for the challenge?<\/a><\/p>\n

John Gallucci
\nSr. Director of Supply Chain
\nNice-Pak, Inc.<\/strong><\/p>\n

Hear John Speak at<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a>
\n<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n


\n<\/strong><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

\u201cSo, even a well thought-out forecasting process can be wasteful if it is not done properly.\u201d This was a remark made by one of the attendees who came to hear my \u201cLean Forecasting & Planning\u201d presentation at IBF\u2019s recent Business Forecasting & Planning Academy @ 2 Levels.\u00a0 This declaration was also one of the more […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":8,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[33],"tags":[60,61,62,41,64,65,66,34,67,146,39,68,69,70,35,42,44,36,48,81,227,37,73,74,38],"class_list":{"0":"post-1272","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","6":"category-forecasting-and-planning","7":"tag-best-practices","8":"tag-business-forecasting","9":"tag-collaborative-forecasting","10":"tag-data-cleansing","11":"tag-demand-forecast","12":"tag-demand-forecasting","13":"tag-demand-management","14":"tag-demand-planning","15":"tag-demand-planning-and-forecasting-conference","16":"tag-dpfc","17":"tag-economic-forecasting","18":"tag-executive-sop","19":"tag-forecast-accuracy","20":"tag-forecast-error","21":"tag-forecasting","22":"tag-forecasting-metrics","23":"tag-forecasting-system","24":"tag-ibf","25":"tag-institute-of-business-forecasting-and-planning","26":"tag-inventory-management","27":"tag-lean-forecasting","28":"tag-sop","29":"tag-sales-operations-planning","30":"tag-sales-forecasting","31":"tag-supply-chain"},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/demand-planning.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1272"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/demand-planning.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/demand-planning.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/demand-planning.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/8"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/demand-planning.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=1272"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/demand-planning.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1272\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/demand-planning.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=1272"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/demand-planning.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=1272"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/demand-planning.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=1272"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}