{"id":3813,"date":"2009-09-10T14:40:03","date_gmt":"2009-09-10T21:40:03","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/demand-planning.com\/?p=322"},"modified":"2009-09-10T14:40:03","modified_gmt":"2009-09-10T21:40:03","slug":"forecasting-in-a-challenging-business-environment-lessons-from-procter-gamble","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/demand-planning.com\/2009\/09\/10\/forecasting-in-a-challenging-business-environment-lessons-from-procter-gamble\/","title":{"rendered":"Forecasting in a Challenging Business Environment: Lessons From Procter & Gamble"},"content":{"rendered":"
\"Dick

Dick Clark<\/p><\/div>\n

Developing accurate forecasts is never easy.\u00a0 The current economic environment makes it even more challenging and many businesses have a bias to over forecast.\u00a0\u00a0 At the same time, businesses need the most accurate volume forecast possible to enable effective planning and decision making.\u00a0 It is important to understand that this is a business issue, not a forecasting capability issue.\u00a0 Demand Planning does not have a crystal ball.\u00a0 There is no silver bullet<\/span>.\u00a0 There is not one work process, one training class, one software solution, or one method of collecting assumptions that will eliminate forecast bias.\u00a0 We must approach the problem holistically and recognize that many basic elements must come together.\u00a0 While we must be aware of the current volatility and uncertainty of demand, the areas of focus are unchanged:<\/p>\n

    \n
  1. Within Demand Planning, we must stick to the basics<\/span>.\u00a0 Basic models, standard analysis techniques, and \u201cnormal\u201d forecasting processes really work.\u00a0 The same things that improve forecast accuracy and reduce error in good times work now as well.<\/li>\n
  2. Within a business, we must recognize that macro events and processes are the largest source of forecast bias in most businesses<\/span>.\u00a0 Bias is not coming from our software solutions.\u00a0 Rather, it is macro assumptions, management over-rides, and other \u201cbig\u201d decisions that lead to forecast bias.\u00a0 Addressing culture, behavior, and rewards are critical to eliminating bias.<\/li>\n
  3. Within a market, we must better understand macro market trends<\/span>.\u00a0 In the current economic environment we are seeing unexpected changes in market size and dramatic changes in customer, shopper, and consumer behavior.\u00a0 We need to better understand the relationship between market size, shipments, and share through collaboration with business partners.<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n

    Many businesses are dealing with persistent bias.\u00a0 It is an on-going problem that not only impacts business results, but also erodes Demand Planning credibility with the customers of the forecast.\u00a0 Eliminating forecast bias is difficult and no single approach works for all businesses.\u00a0 I will be covering some of these ideas in my Luncheon Keynote presentation and Executive Forum<\/a> at the IBF Conference in Orlando<\/a>.\u00a0 I hope they will spark your thinking and lead to dialog with others at the conference and with your business partners when you return home.\u00a0 I look forward to having the chance to talk with and learn from many forecasting professionals during the conference.<\/p>\n

    Dick Clark
    \nDemand Planning Global Process Leader
    \n    Procter & Gamble<\/a><\/p>\n

    See DICK CLARK <\/strong>Speak at The IBF’S:
    \n<\/strong><\/p>\n

    <\/strong><\/p>\n

    <\/strong><\/p>\n

    \n
    \n
    \"<\/strong><\/a><\/strong><\/dt>\n<\/dl>\n<\/div>\n

    <\/strong><\/p>\n

    $695 (USD) for 3 Full Days!<\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n

    October 12-14, 2009
    \nOrlando Florida USA<\/strong><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

    Developing accurate forecasts is never easy.\u00a0 The current economic environment makes it even more challenging and many businesses have a bias to over forecast.\u00a0\u00a0 At the same time, businesses need the most accurate volume forecast possible to enable effective planning and decision making.\u00a0 It is important to understand that this is a business issue, not […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":40,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[33],"tags":[34,35,36,92,93,38],"class_list":{"0":"post-3813","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","6":"category-forecasting-and-planning","7":"tag-demand-planning","8":"tag-forecasting","9":"tag-ibf","10":"tag-pg","11":"tag-procter-gamble","12":"tag-supply-chain"},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/demand-planning.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3813"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/demand-planning.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/demand-planning.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/demand-planning.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/40"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/demand-planning.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=3813"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/demand-planning.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3813\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/demand-planning.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=3813"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/demand-planning.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=3813"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/demand-planning.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=3813"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}