{"id":9180,"date":"2021-07-01T07:34:18","date_gmt":"2021-07-01T11:34:18","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/demand-planning.com\/?p=9180"},"modified":"2021-07-01T07:34:18","modified_gmt":"2021-07-01T11:34:18","slug":"what-is-forecast-bias","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/demand-planning.com\/2021\/07\/01\/what-is-forecast-bias\/","title":{"rendered":"What Is Forecast Bias?"},"content":{"rendered":"<span class=\"cb-itemprop\" itemprop=\"reviewBody\"><p><strong>Q) What is forecast bias? Do you have a view on what should be considered as \u201cbest-in-class\u201d bias?<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong>A)<\/strong> It simply measures the tendency to over-or under-forecast. It is an average of non-absolute values of forecast errors. If it is negative, a company tends to over-forecast; if positive, it tends to under-forecast. In the machine learning context, bias is how a forecast deviates from actuals. In new product forecasting, companies tend to over-forecast. But for mature products, I am not sure. So, I cannot give you best-in-class bias. To me, it is very important to know what your bias is and which way it leans, though very few companies calculate it\u2014just 4.3% according to the latest IBF survey. If we know whether we over-or under-forecast, we can do something about it.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>I hope this helps.<\/p>\n<p>Happy forecasting!<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><strong>Dr. Chaman L. Jain<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong>Editor-in-Chief,<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong>Journal of Business Forecasting<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/span>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Q) What is forecast bias? Do you have a view on what should be considered as \u201cbest-in-class\u201d bias? A) It simply measures the tendency to over-or under-forecast. It is an average of non-absolute values of forecast errors. If it is negative, a company tends to over-forecast; if positive, it tends to under-forecast. In the machine [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":9182,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[386],"tags":[298],"class_list":{"0":"post-9180","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-analytics","8":"tag-forecast-bias"},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/demand-planning.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/9180"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/demand-planning.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/demand-planning.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/demand-planning.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/4"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/demand-planning.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=9180"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/demand-planning.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/9180\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/demand-planning.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/9182"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/demand-planning.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=9180"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/demand-planning.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=9180"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/demand-planning.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=9180"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}